Traders speculated that end-of-month economic releases reinforced the case for continued Fed tightening at the September meeting. The 6-point increase in odds for a 25 basis point hike suggests July data painted a picture of resilient economic activity or persistent inflation pressures. With the August FOMC meeting approaching, market participants appeared to price in a higher probability that policymakers would maintain their hawkish trajectory, keeping rate increases on the table for September.

Traders speculated that late-day developments on July 13th triggered a sharp reversal in rate hike expectations. The 10.5-point decline in odds for a 25 bps increase suggests markets received dovish signals, potentially from Fed commentary indicating concerns about economic growth or financial stability. This intraday swing, occurring just 17 hours after the earlier spike, reflects the volatile nature of rate expectations as traders reassessed the likelihood of September tightening amid conflicting economic indicators.